Capital growth
Victorian property capital growth in 2026: where the numbers actually point
By Precursor Property · 9 min read · Updated June 2026
"The market" is the most misleading phrase in property. In 2026, Victoria is barely growing on average — yet some corridors are running at 6–10% a year. Here's what the current data shows, why the forecasts disagree, and what the spread means before you buy.
The headline numbers
As at the first half of 2026, Victoria's market is steady but soft compared with the rest of the country. The averages hide a lot:
| Market | Median | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne — houses | ~$955,000 | +4.4% |
| Melbourne — units | ~$645,000 | +3.2% |
| Melbourne — all dwellings | ~$823,000 | +2.0% |
| Regional Victoria — houses | ~$630,000 | +4.4% |
| Regional Victoria — units | ~$440,000 | +5.4% |
Sources: REIV (February 2026 medians), Cotality/CoreLogic (dwelling values to ~April–May 2026). Figures rounded; medians differ by source and method.
The 2026 forecasts disagree — a lot
If the experts can't agree, that tells you something about certainty. Published 2026 forecasts for Melbourne/Victoria range from a small fall to strong growth:
- ANZ: around −1.7% (a modest decline)
- CBA: about +1.0%
- NAB: roughly +2.3% across Victorian dwellings
- Westpac: around +4.0%
- KPMG: up to +6.8% for houses and +7.3% for units
That's a spread of roughly nine percentage points for the same city in the same year. The takeaway isn't "pick the optimist" — it's that a city-level number is the wrong tool for an individual purchase.
Where the growth actually is
The real action is below the headline. Three Melbourne corridors have been recording roughly 6–10% annual growth while the metro average sits near 2%:
- Outer west: Tarneit, Truganina, Wyndham Vale
- Northern growth belt: Craigieburn, Roxburgh Park
- South-east: Clyde North, Officer
Regional Victoria has its own standouts — Horsham (around +14% with a ~5.2% yield), Shepparton's unit market (around +13%), and Greater Bendigo as a strong all-rounder near a $610k median. Different drivers (infrastructure, supply, affordability, migration) are doing the work in each.
Units may outpace houses in 2026
A notable 2026 shift: with affordability stretched and houses already expensive, several forecasters expect Victorian units to grow faster than houses this year — a reversal of the long-run pattern. For investors weighing cash flow versus growth, that changes the maths in some pockets.
The lesson: the gap between Victoria's best and worst performing areas in a single year dwarfs the difference between the banks' city-wide forecasts. The suburb — even the street — matters far more than the calendar year you buy in.
What this means before you buy
Averages are for headlines, not decisions. Before you commit, get underneath the number: what's actually driving growth in this pocket — an infrastructure pipeline, constrained supply, a rezoning — or is it just momentum that's about to fade? And remember growth potential is capped by what you can do with the land, which comes back to zoning and overlays.
Key takeaways
- Victoria is growing slowly on average in 2026 (Melbourne ~+2% all dwellings), but the spread is huge.
- Bank forecasts for 2026 range from ~−1.7% to ~+6.8% — proof a city number can't price a single property.
- Outer-growth corridors (west, north, south-east) are running ~6–10%; regional pockets like Horsham and Bendigo stand out.
- Units may outpace houses in Victoria in 2026 — a reversal worth noting.
- Buy the pocket, not "the market" — and check what the land actually allows.
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General information only, current as at June 2026, and not legal or financial advice. Always have contracts and title reviewed by a qualified conveyancer or solicitor for your specific purchase.